2026 House Forecast

PA-08 is among the closest races in the country. Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr. (R) won in 2024 by just 1.6 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (0.1 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

PA-10 is among the closest races in the country. Scott Perry (R) won in 2024 by just 1.3 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (0.2 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

NY-17 is among the closest races in the country. Michael Lawler (R) won in 2024 by just 1.9 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (0.4 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

NE-02 is among the closest races in the country. Don Bacon (R) won in 2024 by just 1.9 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (0.4 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

PA-07 is among the closest races in the country. Ryan Mackenzie (R) won in 2024 by just 1.0 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (0.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

CO-08 is among the closest races in the country. Gabe Evans (R) won in 2024 by just 0.7 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (0.8 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

AZ-06 is among the closest races in the country. Juan Ciscomani (R) won in 2024 by just 2.5 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (1.0 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

WI-03 is among the closest races in the country. Derrick Van Orden (R) won in 2024 by just 2.7 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (1.2 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

IA-01 is among the closest races in the country. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) won in 2024 by just 0.2 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (1.3 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

MS-03 is among the closest races in the country. Michael Guest (R) won in 2024 by just 0.0 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (1.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

TX-01 is among the closest races in the country. Nathaniel Moran (R) won in 2024 by just 0.0 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (1.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

KY-05 is among the closest races in the country. Harold Rogers (R) won in 2024 by just 0.0 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (1.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

TX-13 is among the closest races in the country. Ronny Jackson (R) won in 2024 by just 0.0 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (1.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

TX-11 is among the closest races in the country. August Pfluger (R) won in 2024 by just 0.0 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (1.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

OK-03 is among the closest races in the country. Frank D. Lucas (R) won in 2024 by just 0.0 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (1.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

CA-41 is among the closest races in the country. Ken Calvert (R) won in 2024 by just 3.4 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (1.9 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

AZ-01 is among the closest races in the country. David Schweikert (R) won in 2024 by just 3.8 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (2.0 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

MI-07 is among the closest races in the country. Tom Barrett (R) won in 2024 by just 3.7 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (2.2 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

IA-03 is among the closest races in the country. Zachary Nunn (R) won in 2024 by just 3.8 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (2.3 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

VA-02 is among the closest races in the country. Jennifer A. Kiggans (R) won in 2024 by just 3.8 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (2.3 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

NY-01 is among the closest races in the country. Nick LaLota (R) won in 2024 by just 4.7 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (3.2 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

CO-03 is among the closest races in the country. Jeff Hurd (R) won in 2024 by just 5.0 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (3.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

NH-ZZ is an open seat with no incumbent running, which typically makes races more competitive. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (3.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. With no incumbent running, the race depends heavily on candidate quality, fundraising, and national dynamics. Open seats attract heavy investment from both parties. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

DC-98 is an open seat with no incumbent running, which typically makes races more competitive. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (3.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. With no incumbent running, the race depends heavily on candidate quality, fundraising, and national dynamics. Open seats attract heavy investment from both parties. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

PR-98 is an open seat with no incumbent running, which typically makes races more competitive. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (3.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. With no incumbent running, the race depends heavily on candidate quality, fundraising, and national dynamics. Open seats attract heavy investment from both parties. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

CT-ZZ is an open seat with no incumbent running, which typically makes races more competitive. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (3.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. With no incumbent running, the race depends heavily on candidate quality, fundraising, and national dynamics. Open seats attract heavy investment from both parties. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

IL-ZZ is an open seat with no incumbent running, which typically makes races more competitive. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (3.5 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. With no incumbent running, the race depends heavily on candidate quality, fundraising, and national dynamics. Open seats attract heavy investment from both parties. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

NJ-07 is a competitive district where Thomas H. Kean, Jr. (R) won in 2024 by a modest 5.4 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (3.9 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

MI-10 is a competitive district where John James (R) won in 2024 by a modest 6.1 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (3.9 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

WA-04 is a competitive district where Dan Newhouse (R) won in 2024 by a modest 5.9 points. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 4.4 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

TX-20 is among the closest races in the country. Joaquin Castro (D) won in 2024 by just 0.0 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (4.7 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

FL-20 is among the closest races in the country. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) won in 2024 by just 0.0 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (4.7 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

PA-03 is among the closest races in the country. Dwight Evans (D) won in 2024 by just 0.0 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (4.7 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. The 2024 race was decided by less than 3 points. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

NY-22 leans Democratic, with John W. Mannion winning in 2024 by 10.2 points. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 4.7 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

MT-01 is a competitive district where Ryan K. Zinke (R) won in 2024 by a modest 7.7 points. This race is rated a Toss-up because the predicted margin (5.3 points) is within the model's confidence interval — meaning either party could realistically win. Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — with Trump in office, that headwind pushes Republican-held seats 3-4 points toward Democrats. Expect heavy spending, candidate appearances, and national attention on this district.

CA-22 is a competitive district where David G. Valadao (R) won in 2024 by a modest 6.8 points. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 5.3 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

TX-09 is among the closest races in the country. Al Green (D) won in 2024 by just 0.0 points. This race is rated Lean D — Democrats have an edge of 5.5 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

CA-13 is among the closest races in the country. Adam Gray (D) won in 2024 by just 0.1 points. This race is rated Lean D — Democrats have an edge of 5.6 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

CA-45 is among the closest races in the country. Derek Tran (D) won in 2024 by just 0.2 points. This race is rated Lean D — Democrats have an edge of 5.7 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

OH-09 is among the closest races in the country. Marcy Kaptur (D) won in 2024 by just 0.6 points. This race is rated Lean D — Democrats have an edge of 6.1 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

ME-02 is among the closest races in the country. Jared F. Golden (D) won in 2024 by just 0.7 points. This race is rated Lean D — Democrats have an edge of 6.2 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

SD-00 is currently held by Dusty Johnson (R). No detailed 2024 results are available for this district. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 6.5 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

AK-00 is currently held by Nicholas J. Begich III (R). No detailed 2024 results are available for this district. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 6.5 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

WY-00 is currently held by Harriet M. Hageman (R). No detailed 2024 results are available for this district. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 6.5 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

ND-00 is currently held by Julie Fedorchak (R). No detailed 2024 results are available for this district. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 6.5 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

LA-01 is currently held by Steve Scalise (R). No detailed 2024 results are available for this district. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 6.5 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

LA-03 is currently held by Clay Higgins (R). No detailed 2024 results are available for this district. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 6.5 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

LA-04 is currently held by Mike Johnson (R). No detailed 2024 results are available for this district. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 6.5 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

LA-05 is currently held by Julia Letlow (R). No detailed 2024 results are available for this district. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 6.5 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

NY-19 is among the closest races in the country. Josh Riley (D) won in 2024 by just 1.6 points. This race is rated Lean D — Democrats have an edge of 7.1 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

NC-01 is among the closest races in the country. Donald G. Davis (D) won in 2024 by just 1.7 points. This race is rated Lean D — Democrats have an edge of 7.2 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

AZ-02 is a competitive district where Elijah Crane (R) won in 2024 by a modest 9.0 points. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 7.5 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

OH-13 is among the closest races in the country. Emilia Strong Sykes (D) won in 2024 by just 2.2 points. This race is rated Lean D — Democrats have an edge of 7.7 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.

OH-06 is a competitive district where Michael A. Rulli (R) won in 2024 by a modest 9.3 points. This race is rated Lean R — Republicans have an edge of 7.8 points, but the margin is thin enough that the race could shift. Strong candidate recruitment by the other party or national wave dynamics could flip this race into toss-up territory.