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Senate Report 119-88 - TRANSFORMATIONAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO MODERNIZE THE ECONOMY AGAINST EXTREME WEATHER AND WILDFIRES ACT
[Senate Report 119-88]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]
Calendar No. 199
119th Congress } { Report
SENATE
1st Session } { 119-88
_______________________________________________________________________
TRANSFORMATIONAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO MODERNIZE THE ECONOMY
AGAINST EXTREME WEATHER AND WILDFIRES ACT
__________
R E P O R T
of the
COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION
on
S. 1378
[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]
October 21, 2025.--Ordered to be printed
_______
U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE
69-010 WASHINGTON : 2025
SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION
one hundred nineteenth congress
first session
TED CRUZ, Texas, Chairman
JOHN THUNE, South Dakota MARIA CANTWELL, Washington
ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota
DEB FISCHER, Nebraska BRIAN SCHATZ, Hawaii
JERRY MORAN, Kansas EDWARD J. MARKEY, Massachusetts
DAN SULLIVAN, Alaska GARY C. PETERS, Michigan
MARSHA BLACKBURN, Tennessee TAMMY BALDWIN, Wisconsin
TODD YOUNG, Indiana TAMMY DUCKWORTH, Illinois
TED BUDD, North Carolina JACKY ROSEN, Nevada
ERIC SCHMITT, Missouri BEN RAY LUJAN, New Mexico
JOHN CURTIS, Utah JOHN W. HICKENLOOPER, Colorado
BERNIE MORENO, Ohio JOHN FETTERMAN, Pennsylvania
TIM SHEEHY, Montana ANDY KIM, New Jersey
SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO, West Virginia LISA BLUNT ROCHESTER, Delaware
CYNTHIA M. LUMMIS, Wyoming
Brad Grantz, Majority Staff Director
Lila Harper Helms, Democratic Staff Director
Calendar No. 199
119th Congress } { Report
SENATE
1st Session } { 119-88
======================================================================
TRANSFORMATIONAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO MODERNIZE THE ECONOMY
AGAINST EXTREME WEATHER AND WILDFIRES ACT
_______
October 21, 2025.--Ordered to be printed
_______
Mr. Cruz, from the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation,
submitted the following
R E P O R T
[To accompany S. 1378]
[Including cost of estimate of the Congressional Budget Office]
The Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, to
which was referred the bill (S. 1378) to enhance the use by the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of artificial
intelligence for weather forecasting, and for other purposes,
having considered the same, reports favorably thereon with an
amendment in the nature of a substitute and recommends that the
bill, as amended, do pass.
PURPOSE OF THE BILL
The purpose of S. 1378 is to direct the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to develop and implement
forecasting models powered by artificial intelligence for
weather and wildfires.
BACKGROUND AND NEEDS
NOAA estimates that since 2022, extreme weather events,
such as tornadoes, hurricanes, and wildfires, have resulted in
1,534 fatalities and caused $461.6 billion in damages.\1\ As
the primary agency responsible for weather prediction, NOAA has
developed and maintained numerical weather prediction (NWP)
forecasting systems, which are the foundation of modern weather
forecasting, through the National Weather Service (NWS) and
Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). NWP systems
are still the primary forecasting tool used by the United
States and rely on sophisticated mathematical models processed
by supercomputers, using data from satellites, radar, and other
observational sources to simulate and predict future weather
patterns.\2\
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\1\``U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Summary
Stats,'' NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2025,
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/
summary-stats#temporal-comparison-stats.
\2\``Weather Models,'' NOAA, https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/upper-
air-charts/weather-
models.
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NWP systems in the United States may be falling behind
their international counterparts due to their reliance on
resource-heavy physics-based models, difficulty in accurately
predicting rare weather events, and challenges in processing
the increasing volume of observational data. These issues are
compounded by limited computing resources and a slower pace of
technological adoption compared to other major forecasting
centers worldwide.\3\ Currently, the United States forecasting
efforts depend heavily on datasets maintained by the European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).\4\ The ECMWF
weather forecast models have been shown to be more accurate
than U.S.-based models because the ECMWF has invested more
heavily in supercomputing, data processing, data assimilation,
and the integration of research into operational
forecasting.\5\
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\3\Jerald Brotzge et. al, ``Challenges and Opportunities in
Numerical Weather Prediction,'' American Meteorological Society
Journals, March 28, 2023, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/
bams/104/3/BAMS-D-22-0172.1.xml.
\4\Clifford Mass, ``The Uncoordinated Giant II: Why U.S.
Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Is Still Lagging and How to
Fix It,'' Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, April 25,
2023, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/104/4/BAMS-D-22-
0037.1.xml.
\5\Muhammad Waqas et al., ``Artificial Intelligence and Numerical
Weather Prediction Models: A Technical Survey,'' Natural Hazards
Research, June 2025, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/
S266659212400091X.
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Artificial intelligence (AI) can help identify complex
patterns in large datasets, enhance the use of weather data,
produce faster and more accurate forecasts, and significantly
improve predictions of extreme weather events.\6\ NOAA
scientists have suggested AI could offer significant
enhancements to crucial modeling efforts like tracking and
monitoring hurricanes.\7\ The ECMWF has developed and
implemented the first fully operational AI-powered weather
forecasting model.\8\ Many other countries, including the
United States, are using the dataset for this model to train
and build their own AI-powered weather models.\9\
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\6\Ibid.
\7\Madison Alder, ``Bipartisan Bill Aimed at Enhancing NOAA's AI
Use Reintroduced in House, Senate,'' FedScoop, April 10, 2025, https://
fedscoop.com/bipartisan-bill-noaa-ai-reintroduced-house-senate/.
\8\Nicola Jones, ``A.I. Is Quietly Powering a Revolution in Weather
Prediction,'' Yale Environment 360, April 15, 2025, https://
e360.yale.edu/features/artificial-intelligence-weather-
forecasting.
\9\Ibid.
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The TAME Extreme Weather and Wildfires Act seeks to
modernize U.S. weather forecasting by directing NOAA to develop
domestically curated datasets, support the development of AI-
based global and regional weather models, and strengthen
partnerships with private and academic institutions. It
emphasizes the integration of AI with existing NWP models and
enhances public access to forecasting data while safeguarding
national security and intellectual property.
SUMMARY OF PROVISIONS
S. 1378 would do the following:
Direct NOAA to develop and curate comprehensive
weather forecasting training datasets and experiment
with regional and local artificial intelligence weather
models.
Authorize NOAA to explore the use of artificial
intelligence to enhance the dissemination of
information related to weather and wildfire risks.
Direct NOAA to explore advanced applications of
artificial intelligence to enhance weather forecasts
and information delivery, as well as to provide
technical assistance and support for the use of
artificial intelligence in weather.
Authorize NOAA to explore partnerships and consider
novel co-investment strategies with private academic
and international entities to support innovative
research.
Authorize $105 million for fiscal year 2026 and $25
million for each of fiscal years 2027-2030.
LEGISLATIVE HISTORY
S. 1378 was introduced on April 9, 2025, by Senator Schatz
(for himself and Senators Sheehy, Lujan, and Welch) and was
referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and
Transportation of the Senate. On April 30, 2025, the Committee
met in open Executive Session and, by voice vote, ordered S.
1378 reported favorably with an amendment (in the nature of a
substitute).
H.R. 2770, a House companion bill to S. 1378, was
introduced on April 9, 2025, by Representative Franklin and was
referred to the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology of
the House of Representatives.
118th Congress
S. 3888, the TAME Extreme Weather Act, was introduced on
March 6, 2024, by Senator Schatz (for himself and Senators
Lujan, Butler, and Welch) and was referred to the Committee on
Commerce, Science, and Transportation of the Senate.
H.R. 9498, a House companion bill to S. 3888, was
introduced on September 9, 2024, by Representative Franklin
(for himself and Representative Mullin) and was referred to the
Committee on Science, Space, and Technology of the House of
Representatives.
ESTIMATED COSTS
In accordance with paragraph 11(a) of rule XXVI of the
Standing Rules of the Senate and section 403 of the
Congressional Budget Act of 1974, the Committee provides the
following cost estimate, prepared by the Congressional Budget
Office:
[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]
S. 1378 would authorize the appropriation of $105 million
for fiscal year 2026 and $25 million annually from 2027 through
2030 for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) to develop comprehensive datasets for training weather
forecasting models, in coordination with other federal entities
and technical experts.
The bill also would allow NOAA to:
Use artificial intelligence (AI) to
disseminate weather and wildfire risk information,
Partner with nonfederal entities to study
and recommend best practices for AI-based weather
forecasting, and
Recruit expert personnel to support AI
weather forecasting.
In addition, S. 1378 would require NOAA to report to the
Congress on AI-based weather forecasting and potential security
risks related to foreign access to weather data.
The costs of the legislation, detailed in Table 1, fall
within budget function 300 (natural resources and environment).
TABLE 1.--ESTIMATED INCREASES IN SPENDING IN SUBJECT TO APPROPRIATION UNDER S. 1378
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By fiscal year, millions of dollars--
--------------------------------------------------------------
2025-
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2030
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Authorization.................................... 0 105 25 25 25 25 205
Estimated Outlays................................ 0 63 38 36 26 25 188
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Using historical spending patterns for similar activities,
CBO estimates that implementing S. 1378 would cost $188 million
over the 2025-2030 period and $15 million after 2030, assuming
appropriation of the authorized amounts.
The CBO staff contact for this estimate is Kelly Durand.
The estimate was reviewed by H. Samuel Papenfuss, Deputy
Director of Budget Analysis.
Phillip L. Swagel,
Director, Congressional Budget Office.
REGULATORY IMPACT STATEMENT
In accordance with paragraph 11(b) of rule XXVI of the
Standing Rules of the Senate, the Committee provides the
following evaluation of the regulatory impact of the
legislation, as reported:
Number of Persons Covered
S. 1378, as reported, would not subject individuals to new
regulations.
Economic Impact
S. 1378, as reported, is not expected to have any
significant adverse impacts on the Nation's economy. The bill
may have a positive economic impact by reducing the loss of
lives and property.
Privacy
S. 1378, as reported, would not have any adverse impact on
the personal privacy of individuals.
Paperwork
S. 1378, as reported, would not increase paperwork
requirements for private individuals or businesses. It would
increase NOAA's paperwork burden by requiring the agency to
submit reports to Congress regarding the use of datasets for AI
weather forecasting, use of AI for dissemination of information
on weather models, support by NOAA of existing observations,
research, and weather models, observation system coverage, and
use of uncertainty quantification research. It would also
require NOAA to develop and implement a plan to make AI weather
models and information and documentation of AI models available
to the public.
CONGRESSIONALLY DIRECTED SPENDING
In compliance with paragraph 4(b) of rule XLIV of the
Standing Rules of the Senate, the Committee provides that no
provisions contained in the bill, as reported, meet the
definition of congressionally directed spending items under the
rule.
SECTION-BY-SECTION ANALYSIS
Section 1. Short title.
This section would provide that the bill may be cited as
the ``Transformational Artificial intelligence to Modernize the
Economy against Extreme Weather and Wildfires Act'' or the
``TAME Extreme Weather and Wildfires Act''.
Section 2. Artificial intelligence for weather forecasting.
This section would define the terms ``artificial
intelligence'', ``artificial intelligence weather model'',
``curate'', ``numerical weather model'', ``observational
data'', ``seasonal'', ``subseasonal'', ``Under Secretary'',
``weather enterprise'', ``synthetic data'', and ``weather
data''.
This section would direct NOAA to develop and curate
comprehensive weather forecasting training datasets within 4
years. Additionally, this section would authorize NOAA to
develop and test a global weather model based on AI
technologies. Additionally, this section would authorize NOAA
to experiment with regional and local AI weather models.
This section would authorize NOAA to explore the use of AI
to enhance the dissemination of information related to weather
and wildfire risks. Additionally, this section would require
NOAA to continue supporting its current activities regardless
of the new initiatives under this subsection. These current
activities include collecting and acquiring traditional and
novel observational data relevant to AI and numerical
forecasting for weather, water, and space weather; advancing
research on the Earth system and numerical weather model
forecasting; developing and advancing numerical Earth system
modeling for predictions; developing weather model data post-
processing techniques; and improving data assimilation
techniques.
This section would authorize NOAA to evaluate advanced
machine learning model techniques to improve observing system
coverage in regions with limited data collection to help
improve the accuracy of forecasts in these regions.
Additionally, it would authorize NOAA to conduct research to
better assess uncertainty in weather forecasting to enable more
accurate risk communication.
This section would require NOAA to submit a report of the
details of the activities carried out under the ``Earth System
Forecasting and Information Delivery'' subsection to Congress
every 2 years until 2035.
This section would direct NOAA to explore advanced
applications of AI to enhance weather forecasts and information
delivery. This section would direct NOAA to provide technical
assistance, data access, and support to forecasters,
scientists, social scientists, and engineers to evaluate AI
models. It would require NOAA to provide both best practices
for developing forecasts and support to emergency managers for
making operational decisions based on AI, numerical, and
combined weather model outputs.
This section would require NOAA, in partnership with other
Federal agencies, academics, and the private sector, to develop
a common assessment framework for numerical and AI weather
models. This section would authorize NOAA to partner with the
National Academy of Sciences or another appropriate entity to
assess the impact of AI weather models on the weather
enterprise and make recommendations for integrating AI models
into weather forecasting.
This section would authorize NOAA to explore partnerships
with private, academic, and international entities to support
transformative research and development in weather and
environmental forecasting; these partnerships could include the
consideration and adoption of co-investment strategies with
private academic and international sectors.
This section would require NOAA to develop and implement a
plan to make certain AI weather model resources and data
publicly available at no cost, subject to applicable law,
national security considerations, intellectual property rights,
and policy. It would require NOAA to submit a classified and
unclassified report to Congress on security risks related to
foreign countries of concern having access to U.S. weather data
within 1 year of enactment of this section.
This section would allow NOAA to explore novel methods for
recruiting, retraining, and retaining expert personnel to
support the activities outlined in this section. This section
would allow NOAA, in consultation with the Secretary of
Defense, to withhold models or data if necessary to protect the
national security interests of the United States. This section
would clarify that nothing written in this Act supersedes
existing laws related to national security protections.
Lastly, this section would authorize appropriations of $105
million for fiscal year 2026 and $25 million annually for
fiscal years 2027 through 2030.
CHANGES IN EXISTING LAW
In compliance with paragraph 12 of rule XXVI of the
Standing Rules of the Senate, the Committee states that the
bill as reported would make no change to existing law.
[all]