Tammy Baldwin

In the 2024 Senate race for WI Senate seat, Tammy Baldwin (D) won with 49.3% of the vote, defeating Eric D. Hovde (R) who received 48.5%. 4 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 0.9-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This race flipped the seat from Republican to Democrat. Ron Johnson (R) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.

In the 2018 Senate race for WI Senate seat, Tammy Baldwin (D) defeated Leah Vukmir (R) 55.4% to 44.6%. Tammy Baldwin received 1,472,914 votes compared to 1,184,885 for Leah Vukmir, a comfortable 10.8-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

This race flipped the seat from Republican to Democrat. Ron Johnson (R) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Democrat, Tammy Baldwin benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2012 Senate race for WI Senate seat, Tammy Baldwin (D) won with 51.4% of the vote, defeating Tommy G. Thompson (R) who received 45.9%. 3 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Tammy Baldwin's 5.5-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.