Vern Buchanan

In the 2024 House race for FL-16, Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Jan Schneider (D) 59.5% to 40.5%. Vern Buchanan received 247,516 votes compared to 168,625 for Jan Schneider, a comfortable 19.0-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Vern Buchanan benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for FL-16, Vern Buchanan (R) won with 62.1% of the vote, defeating Jan Schneider (D) who received 37.9%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Vern Buchanan's 24.3-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Vern Buchanan benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Vern Buchanan benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2020 House race for FL-16, Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Margaret Good (D) 55.5% to 44.5%. Vern Buchanan received 269,001 votes compared to 215,683 for Margaret Good, a comfortable 11.0-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Vern Buchanan benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2018 House race for FL-16, Vern Buchanan (R) defeated David Shapiro (D) 27.3% to 22.7%. Vern Buchanan received 197,483 votes compared to 164,463 for David Shapiro, a narrow 4.6-point margin that would have flipped with a small shift in turnout or persuasion.

As the incumbent, Vern Buchanan benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Vern Buchanan won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Republican Trump was in office).

In the 2016 House race for FL-16, Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Jan Schneider (D) 59.8% to 40.2%. Vern Buchanan received 230,654 votes compared to 155,262 for Jan Schneider, a comfortable 19.5-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Vern Buchanan benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for FL-16, Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Henry Lawrence (D) 61.5% to 38.4%. Vern Buchanan received 169,126 votes compared to 105,483 for Henry Lawrence, a dominant 23.2-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Vern Buchanan benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Vern Buchanan benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2012 House race for FL-16, Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Keith Fitzgerald (D) 53.6% to 46.4%. Vern Buchanan received 187,147 votes compared to 161,929 for Keith Fitzgerald, a 7.2-point margin that indicates a genuinely contested race.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.