Don Bacon

In the 2024 House race for NE-2, Don Bacon (R) defeated Tony Vargas (D) 50.9% to 49.1%. Don Bacon received 160,198 votes compared to 154,369 for Tony Vargas, a razor-thin margin of just 1.9 points — among the closest races in the country.

As the incumbent, Don Bacon benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.

In the 2022 House race for NE-2, Don Bacon (R) defeated Tony Vargas (D) 51.3% to 48.7%. Don Bacon received 112,663 votes compared to 106,807 for Tony Vargas, a narrow 2.7-point margin that would have flipped with a small shift in turnout or persuasion.

As the incumbent, Don Bacon benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Don Bacon benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.

In the 2020 House race for NE-2, Don Bacon (R) won with 50.8% of the vote, defeating Kara Eastman (D) who received 46.2%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. The 4.6-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2018 House race for NE-02, Don Bacon (R) defeated Kara Eastman (D) 51.0% to 49.0%. Don Bacon received 126,715 votes compared to 121,770 for Kara Eastman, a narrow 2.0-point margin that would have flipped with a small shift in turnout or persuasion.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Lee Terry (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Republican, Don Bacon won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Republican Trump was in office).