Tom Barrett

In the 2024 House race for MI-7, Tom Barrett (R) won with 50.3% of the vote, defeating Curtis Hertel (D) who received 46.6%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. The 3.7-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. Elissa Slotkin (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2022 House race for MI-7, Elissa Slotkin (D) won with 51.7% of the vote, defeating Tom Barrett (R) who received 46.3%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Elissa Slotkin's 5.4-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This race flipped the seat from Republican to Democrat. Tim Walberg (R) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Democrat, Elissa Slotkin won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office). This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.