Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr.

In the 2024 House race for PA-8, Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) defeated Matt Cartwright (D) 50.8% to 49.2%. Rob Bresnahan Jr. received 195,663 votes compared to 189,411 for Matt Cartwright, a razor-thin margin of just 1.6 points — among the closest races in the country.

Rob Bresnahan Jr. defeated the incumbent Matt Cartwright (D), which is a significant political event — most incumbents win re-election by wide margins. This was a general election upset. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.