Ken Calvert

In the 2024 House race for CA-41, Ken Calvert (R) defeated Will Rollins (D) 51.7% to 48.3%. Ken Calvert received 183,216 votes compared to 171,229 for Will Rollins, a narrow 3.4-point margin that would have flipped with a small shift in turnout or persuasion.

As the incumbent, Ken Calvert benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2022 House race for CA-41, Ken Calvert (R) defeated Will Rollins (D) 52.4% to 47.6%. Ken Calvert received 123,869 votes compared to 112,769 for Will Rollins, a narrow 4.7-point margin that would have flipped with a small shift in turnout or persuasion.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. Mark Takano (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Republican, Ken Calvert benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2018 House race for CA-42, Ken Calvert (R) defeated Julia C Peacock (D) 56.5% to 43.5%. Ken Calvert received 262,080 votes compared to 201,784 for Julia C Peacock, a comfortable 13.0-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Ken Calvert benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Ken Calvert won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Republican Trump was in office).

In the 2016 House race for CA-42, Ken Calvert (R) defeated Tim Sheridan (D) 58.8% to 41.2%. Ken Calvert received 149,547 votes compared to 104,689 for Tim Sheridan, a comfortable 17.6-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Ken Calvert benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for CA-42, Ken Calvert (R) defeated Tim Sheridan (D) 65.7% to 34.3%. Ken Calvert received 74,540 votes compared to 38,850 for Tim Sheridan, a dominant 31.5-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Ken Calvert benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Ken Calvert benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2012 House race for CA-42, Ken Calvert (R) defeated Michael Williamson (D) 60.6% to 39.4%. Ken Calvert received 130,245 votes compared to 84,702 for Michael Williamson, a dominant 21.2-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.