Salud O. Carbajal

In the 2024 House race for CA-24, Salud Carbajal (D) defeated Thomas Cole (R) 62.7% to 37.3%. Salud Carbajal received 214,724 votes compared to 127,755 for Thomas Cole, a dominant 25.4-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Salud Carbajal benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Democrat column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2022 House race for CA-24, Salud Carbajal (D) defeated Brad Allen (R) 60.6% to 39.4%. Salud Carbajal received 159,019 votes compared to 103,533 for Brad Allen, a dominant 21.1-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Salud Carbajal benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Salud Carbajal won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office).

In the 2020 House race for CA-24, Salud Carbajal (D) defeated Andy Caldwell (R) 58.7% to 41.3%. Salud Carbajal received 212,564 votes compared to 149,781 for Andy Caldwell, a comfortable 17.3-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Salud Carbajal benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2018 House race for CA-24, Salud Carbajal (D) defeated Justin Fareed (R) 58.6% to 41.4%. Salud Carbajal received 333,100 votes compared to 235,762 for Justin Fareed, a comfortable 17.1-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Salud Carbajal benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Salud Carbajal benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2016 House race for CA-24, Salud Carbajal (D) defeated Justin Donald Fareed (R) 53.4% to 46.6%. Salud Carbajal received 166,034 votes compared to 144,780 for Justin Donald Fareed, a 6.8-point margin that indicates a genuinely contested race.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Lois Capps (D) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.