Mike Carey

In the 2024 House race for OH-15, Mike Carey (R) defeated Adam Miller (D) 56.5% to 43.5%. Mike Carey received 196,338 votes compared to 151,411 for Adam Miller, a comfortable 12.9-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Mike Carey benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for OH-15, Mike Carey (R) defeated Gary Josephson (D) 57.0% to 43.0%. Mike Carey received 143,112 votes compared to 108,139 for Gary Josephson, a comfortable 13.9-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Steve Stivers (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Republican, Mike Carey benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.