Jasmine Crockett

In the 2024 House race for TX-30, Jasmine Crockett (D) defeated Jrmar "JJ" Jefferson (L) 84.9% to 15.1%. Jasmine Crockett received 197,650 votes compared to 35,175 for Jrmar "JJ" Jefferson, a dominant 69.8-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Jasmine Crockett benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Democrat column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2022 House race for TX-30, Jasmine Crockett (D) won with 74.7% of the vote, defeating James Rodgers (R) who received 21.7%. 3 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Jasmine Crockett's 53.0-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Democrat, Jasmine Crockett won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office). The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Democrat column for the foreseeable future.