Juan Ciscomani

In the 2024 House race for AZ-6, Juan Ciscomani (R) won with 50.0% of the vote, defeating Kirsten Engel (D) who received 47.5%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 2.5-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

As the incumbent, Juan Ciscomani benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.

In the 2022 House race for AZ-6, Juan Ciscomani (R) won with 50.7% of the vote, defeating Kirsten Engel (D) who received 49.2%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 1.5-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — David Schweikert (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Republican, Juan Ciscomani benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.