Monica De La Cruz

In the 2024 House race for TX-15, Monica De La Cruz (R) defeated Michelle Vallejo (D) 57.1% to 42.9%. Monica De La Cruz received 127,804 votes compared to 95,965 for Michelle Vallejo, a comfortable 14.2-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Monica De La Cruz benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for TX-15, Monica De La Cruz (R) won with 53.3% of the vote, defeating Michelle Vallejo (D) who received 44.8%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Monica De La Cruz's 8.5-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. Vicente Gonzalez (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Republican, Monica De La Cruz benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2020 House race for TX-15, Vicente Gonzalez (D) won with 50.5% of the vote, defeating Monica De La Cruz (R) who received 47.6%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. The 2.9-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

As the incumbent, Vicente Gonzalez benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.