Joni Ernst

In the 2020 Senate race for IA Senate seat, Joni K. Ernst (R) won with 51.7% of the vote, defeating Theresa Greenfield (D) who received 45.1%. 5 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Joni K. Ernst's 6.6-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Chuck Grassley (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2014 Senate race for IA Senate seat, Joni Ernst (R) won with 52.1% of the vote, defeating Bruce Braley (D) who received 43.8%. 4 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Joni Ernst's 8.3-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Republican, Joni Ernst benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.