Pat Fallon

In the 2024 House race for TX-4, Pat Fallon (R) defeated Simon Cardell (D) 68.4% to 31.6%. Pat Fallon received 241,603 votes compared to 111,696 for Simon Cardell, a dominant 36.8-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Pat Fallon benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2022 House race for TX-4, Pat Fallon (R) won with 66.7% of the vote, defeating Iro Omere (D) who received 30.9%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Pat Fallon's 35.8-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Pat Fallon benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Pat Fallon benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2020 House race for TX-4, Pat Fallon (R) won with 75.1% of the vote, defeating Russell Foster (D) who received 22.6%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Pat Fallon's 52.5-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.