Lizzie Fletcher

In the 2024 House race for TX-7, Lizzie Fletcher (D) defeated Caroline Kane (R) 61.3% to 38.7%. Lizzie Fletcher received 149,820 votes compared to 94,651 for Caroline Kane, a dominant 22.6-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Lizzie Fletcher benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for TX-7, Lizzie Fletcher (D) defeated Johnny Teague (R) 63.8% to 36.2%. Lizzie Fletcher received 115,994 votes compared to 65,835 for Johnny Teague, a dominant 27.6-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Lizzie Fletcher benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Lizzie Fletcher won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office). The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Democrat column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2020 House race for TX-7, Lizzie Fletcher (D) won with 50.8% of the vote, defeating Wesley P. Hunt (R) who received 47.5%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. The 3.3-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2018 House race for TX-07, Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D) defeated John Culberson (R) 52.5% to 47.5%. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher received 127,959 votes compared to 115,642 for John Culberson, a 5.1-point margin that indicates a genuinely contested race.

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher defeated the incumbent John Abney Culberson (R), which is a significant political event — most incumbents win re-election by wide margins. This was a general election upset. As a Democrat, Lizzie Pannill Fletcher benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.