Paul A. Gosar

In the 2024 House race for AZ-9, Paul Gosar (R) defeated Quacy Smith (D) 65.3% to 34.7%. Paul Gosar received 249,583 votes compared to 132,640 for Quacy Smith, a dominant 30.6-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Paul Gosar benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2022 House race for AZ-9, Paul Gosar (R) won with 97.8% of the vote, defeating Richard Grayson (W) who received 1.8%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Paul Gosar's 96.0-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. Greg Stanton (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Republican, Paul Gosar benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2018 House race for AZ-04, Paul Gosar (R) won with 68.2% of the vote, defeating David Brill (D) who received 30.5%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Paul Gosar's 37.7-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Paul Gosar benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Paul Gosar won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Republican Trump was in office).

In the 2016 House race for AZ-04, Paul A. Gosar (R) defeated Mikel Weisser (D) 71.5% to 28.6%. Paul A. Gosar received 203,487 votes compared to 81,296 for Mikel Weisser, a dominant 42.9-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Paul A. Gosar benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for AZ-04, Paul A. Gosar (R) won with 70.0% of the vote, defeating Mike Weisser (D) who received 25.8%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Paul A. Gosar's 44.2-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Paul A. Gosar benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Paul A. Gosar benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2012 House race for AZ-04, Paul A. Gosar (R) won with 66.8% of the vote, defeating Johnnie Robinson (D) who received 28.4%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Paul A. Gosar's 38.5-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.