Ruben Gallego

In the 2024 Senate race for AZ Senate seat, Ruben Gallego (D) won with 50.1% of the vote, defeating Kari Lake (R) who received 47.6%. 8 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 2.4-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Mark Kelly (D) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.

In the 2018 House race for AZ-07, Ruben Gallego (D) defeated Gary Swing (G) 85.6% to 14.2%. Ruben Gallego received 113,044 votes compared to 18,706 for Gary Swing, a dominant 71.4-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Ruben Gallego benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Ruben Gallego benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2016 House race for AZ-07, Ruben Gallego (D) defeated Eve Nunez (R) 75.2% to 24.7%. Ruben Gallego received 119,465 votes compared to 39,286 for Eve Nunez, a dominant 50.5-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Ruben Gallego benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for AZ-07, Ruben Gallego (D) won with 74.8% of the vote, defeating Joe Cobb (L) who received 14.8%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Ruben Gallego's 60.1-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Ed Pastor (D) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Democrat, Ruben Gallego won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Obama was in office).