Carlos A. Gimenez

In the 2024 House race for FL-28, Carlos A. Gimenez (R) defeated Phil Ehr (D) 64.6% to 35.4%. Carlos A. Gimenez received 210,057 votes compared to 115,280 for Phil Ehr, a dominant 29.1-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Carlos A. Gimenez benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2022 House race for FL-28, Carlos A. Gimenez (R) won with 63.7% of the vote, defeating Robert Asencio (D) who received 36.3%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Carlos A. Gimenez's 27.4-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Republican, Carlos A. Gimenez benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.