Adam Gray

In the 2024 House race for CA-13, Adam Gray (D) defeated John Duarte (R) 50.0% to 50.0%. Adam Gray received 105,554 votes compared to 105,367 for John Duarte, a razor-thin margin of just 0.1 points — among the closest races in the country.

Adam Gray defeated the incumbent John Duarte (R), which is a significant political event — most incumbents win re-election by wide margins. This was a general election upset. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.

In the 2022 House race for CA-13, John Duarte (R) defeated Adam Gray (D) 50.2% to 49.8%. John Duarte received 67,060 votes compared to 66,496 for Adam Gray, a razor-thin margin of just 0.4 points — among the closest races in the country.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. Barbara Lee (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Republican, John Duarte benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.