Cindy Hyde-Smith

In the 2020 Senate race for MS Senate seat, Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) won with 54.1% of the vote, defeating Mike Espy (D) who received 44.1%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Cindy Hyde-Smith's 10.0-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Thad Cochran (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2018 Senate race for MS Senate seat, Cindy Hyde-smith (R) defeated Mike Espy (D) 26.4% to 22.8%. Cindy Hyde-smith received 486,769 votes compared to 420,819 for Mike Espy, a narrow 3.6-point margin that would have flipped with a small shift in turnout or persuasion.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Thad Cochran (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Republican, Cindy Hyde-smith won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Republican Trump was in office).