Mark Kelly

In the 2022 Senate race for AZ Senate seat, Mark Kelly (D) won with 51.4% of the vote, defeating Blake Masters (R) who received 46.5%. 9 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 4.9-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

As the incumbent, Mark Kelly benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Mark Kelly won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office). This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2020 Senate race for AZ Senate seat, Mark Kelly (D) won with 51.2% of the vote, defeating Martha McSally (R) who received 48.8%. 17 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 2.3-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This race flipped the seat from Republican to Democrat. John Mccain (R) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.