Trent Kelly

In the 2024 House race for MS-1, Trent Kelly (R) defeated Dianne Dodson Black (D) 69.8% to 30.2%. Trent Kelly received 223,589 votes compared to 96,697 for Dianne Dodson Black, a dominant 39.6-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Trent Kelly benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2022 House race for MS-1, Trent Kelly (R) defeated Dianne Dodson Black (D) 73.0% to 27.0%. Trent Kelly received 122,151 votes compared to 45,238 for Dianne Dodson Black, a dominant 45.9-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Trent Kelly benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Trent Kelly benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2020 House race for MS-1, Trent Kelly (R) defeated Antonia Eliason (D) 68.8% to 31.3%. Trent Kelly received 228,787 votes compared to 104,008 for Antonia Eliason, a dominant 37.5-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2018 House race for MS-01, Trent Kelly (R) won with 66.9% of the vote, defeating Randy Mack Wadkins (D) who received 32.4%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Trent Kelly's 34.5-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Trent Kelly benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Trent Kelly won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Republican Trump was in office).

In the 2016 House race for MS-01, Trent Kelly (R) won with 68.7% of the vote, defeating Jacob Owens (D) who received 27.9%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Trent Kelly's 40.8-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Alan Nunnelee (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.