Thomas H. Kean, Jr.
RepublicanNJ-7 · Representative
In the 2024 House race for NJ-7, Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) won with 51.8% of the vote, defeating Sue Altman (D) who received 46.4%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Thomas H. Kean Jr.'s 5.4-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.
As the incumbent, Thomas H. Kean Jr. benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.
In the 2022 House race for NJ-7, Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) defeated Tom Malinowski (D) 51.4% to 48.6%. Thomas H. Kean Jr. received 159,392 votes compared to 150,701 for Tom Malinowski, a narrow 2.8-point margin that would have flipped with a small shift in turnout or persuasion.
Thomas H. Kean Jr. defeated the incumbent Tom Malinowski (D), which is a significant political event — most incumbents win re-election by wide margins. This was a general election upset. As a Republican, Thomas H. Kean Jr. benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.
In the 2020 House race for NJ-7, Tom Malinowski (D) defeated Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) 50.6% to 49.4%. Tom Malinowski received 219,629 votes compared to 214,318 for Thomas H. Kean Jr., a razor-thin margin of just 1.2 points — among the closest races in the country.
This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.