Jennifer A. Kiggans

In the 2024 House race for VA-2, Jen A. Kiggans (R) won with 50.7% of the vote, defeating Missy Cotter Smasal (D) who received 46.9%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 3.8-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

As the incumbent, Jen A. Kiggans benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2022 House race for VA-2, Jen A. Kiggans (R) won with 51.6% of the vote, defeating Elaine G. Luria (D) who received 48.2%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. The 3.4-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

Jen A. Kiggans defeated the incumbent Elaine G. Luria (D), which is a significant political event — most incumbents win re-election by wide margins. This was a general election upset. As a Republican, Jen A. Kiggans benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.