Laurel M. Lee

In the 2024 House race for FL-15, Laurel Lee (R) defeated Patricia "Pat" Kemp (D) 56.2% to 43.8%. Laurel Lee received 195,334 votes compared to 152,361 for Patricia "Pat" Kemp, a comfortable 12.4-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Laurel Lee benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for FL-15, Laurel Lee (R) defeated Alan M. Cohn (D) 58.5% to 41.5%. Laurel Lee received 145,219 votes compared to 102,835 for Alan M. Cohn, a comfortable 17.1-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Scott Franklin (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Republican, Laurel Lee benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.