Tom McClintock

In the 2024 House race for CA-5, Tom McClintock (R) defeated Michael J. "Mike" Barkley (D) 61.8% to 38.2%. Tom McClintock received 227,643 votes compared to 140,919 for Michael J. "Mike" Barkley, a dominant 23.5-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Tom McClintock benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for CA-5, Tom McClintock (R) defeated Michael J. "Mike" Barkley (D) 61.3% to 38.7%. Tom McClintock received 173,524 votes compared to 109,506 for Michael J. "Mike" Barkley, a dominant 22.6-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. Mike Thompson (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Republican, Tom McClintock benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2018 House race for CA-04, Tom Mcclintock (R) defeated Jessica Morse (D) 54.1% to 45.9%. Tom Mcclintock received 368,802 votes compared to 312,506 for Jessica Morse, a 8.3-point margin that indicates a genuinely contested race.

As the incumbent, Tom Mcclintock benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Tom Mcclintock won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Republican Trump was in office).

In the 2016 House race for CA-04, Tom Mcclintock (R) defeated Robert W. Derlet (D) 62.7% to 37.3%. Tom Mcclintock received 220,133 votes compared to 130,845 for Robert W. Derlet, a dominant 25.4-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Tom Mcclintock benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for CA-04, Tom Mcclintock (R) defeated Arthur Art Moore (R) 60.0% to 40.0%. Tom Mcclintock received 126,784 votes compared to 84,350 for Arthur Art Moore, a dominant 20.1-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Tom Mcclintock benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Tom Mcclintock benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2012 House race for CA-04, Tom Mcclintock (R) defeated Jack Uppal (D) 61.1% to 38.9%. Tom Mcclintock received 197,803 votes compared to 125,885 for Jack Uppal, a dominant 22.2-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.