Mary E. Miller

In the 2024 House race for IL-15, Mary Miller (R) defeated William Bonnett (W) 99.5% to 0.5%. Mary Miller received 308,825 votes compared to 1,409 for William Bonnett, a dominant 99.1-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Mary Miller benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2022 House race for IL-15, Mary Miller (R) defeated Paul J. Lange (D) 71.1% to 28.9%. Mary Miller received 213,007 votes compared to 86,396 for Paul J. Lange, a dominant 42.3-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Mary Miller benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Mary Miller benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2020 House race for IL-15, Mary Miller (R) defeated Erika C. Weaver (D) 73.5% to 26.6%. Mary Miller received 244,947 votes compared to 88,559 for Erika C. Weaver, a dominant 46.9-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — John M. Shimkus (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.