Kevin Mullin

In the 2024 House race for CA-15, Kevin Mullin (D) defeated Anna Cheng Kramer (R) 73.1% to 26.9%. Kevin Mullin received 211,648 votes compared to 77,896 for Anna Cheng Kramer, a dominant 46.2-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Kevin Mullin benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Democrat column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2022 House race for CA-15, Kevin Mullin (D) defeated David J. Canepa (D) 55.5% to 44.5%. Kevin Mullin received 108,077 votes compared to 86,797 for David J. Canepa, a comfortable 10.9-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Eric Swalwell (D) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Democrat, Kevin Mullin won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office).