Troy E. Nehls

In the 2024 House race for TX-22, Troy E. Nehls (R) defeated Marquette Greene-Scott (D) 62.1% to 37.9%. Troy E. Nehls received 209,285 votes compared to 127,604 for Marquette Greene-Scott, a dominant 24.2-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Troy E. Nehls benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for TX-22, Troy E. Nehls (R) won with 62.2% of the vote, defeating Jamie Kaye Jordan (D) who received 35.5%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Troy E. Nehls's 26.7-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Troy E. Nehls benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Troy E. Nehls benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2020 House race for TX-22, Troy E. Nehls (R) won with 51.5% of the vote, defeating Sri Kulkarni (D) who received 44.6%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Troy E. Nehls's 6.9-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Pete Olson (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.