Andrew Ogles

In the 2024 House race for TN-5, Andy Ogles (R) won with 56.9% of the vote, defeating Maryam Abolfazli (D) who received 39.5%. 3 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Andy Ogles's 17.4-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Andy Ogles benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for TN-5, Andy Ogles (R) won with 55.8% of the vote, defeating Heidi Campbell (D) who received 42.3%. 3 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Andy Ogles's 13.5-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. Jim Cooper (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Republican, Andy Ogles benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.