Harold Rogers

In the 2024 House race for KY-5, Hal Rogers (R) ran unopposed and received 261,407 votes. Running without a challenger is rare and usually indicates either a safe party stronghold or that the opposition could not field a candidate.

As the incumbent, Hal Rogers benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for KY-5, Hal Rogers (R) won with 82.2% of the vote, defeating Conor Halbleib (D) who received 17.8%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Hal Rogers's 64.3-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Hal Rogers benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Hal Rogers benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2020 House race for KY-5, Hal Rogers (R) defeated Matthew Ryan Best (D) 84.2% to 15.8%. Hal Rogers received 250,914 votes compared to 47,056 for Matthew Ryan Best, a dominant 68.4-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2018 House race for KY-05, Harold Hal Rogers (R) defeated Kenneth S. Stepp (D) 78.9% to 21.1%. Harold Hal Rogers received 172,093 votes compared to 45,890 for Kenneth S. Stepp, a dominant 57.9-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Harold Hal Rogers benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Harold Hal Rogers won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Republican Trump was in office).

In the 2014 House race for KY-05, Harold Rogers (R) defeated Kennth S. Stepp (D) 78.3% to 21.8%. Harold Rogers received 171,350 votes compared to 47,617 for Kennth S. Stepp, a dominant 56.5-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Harold Rogers benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Harold Rogers benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2012 House race for KY-05, Harold Rogers (R) defeated Kenneth S. Stepp (D) 77.9% to 22.1%. Harold Rogers received 195,408 votes compared to 55,447 for Kenneth S. Stepp, a dominant 55.8-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.