Greg Stanton

In the 2024 House race for AZ-4, Greg Stanton (D) won with 52.7% of the vote, defeating Kelly Cooper (R) who received 45.5%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Greg Stanton's 7.3-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

As the incumbent, Greg Stanton benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2022 House race for AZ-4, Greg Stanton (D) won with 56.1% of the vote, defeating Kelly Cooper (R) who received 43.9%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Greg Stanton's 12.2-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This race flipped the seat from Republican to Democrat. Paul Gosar (R) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Democrat, Greg Stanton won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office).

In the 2018 House race for AZ-09, Greg Stanton (D) defeated Stephen L Ferrara (R) 61.1% to 38.9%. Greg Stanton received 159,583 votes compared to 101,662 for Stephen L Ferrara, a dominant 22.2-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Kyrsten Sinema (D) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Democrat, Greg Stanton benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.