Tim Sheehy

In the 2024 Senate race for MT Senate seat, Tim Sheehy (R) won with 52.6% of the vote, defeating Jon Tester (D) who received 45.5%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Tim Sheehy's 7.1-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Steve Daines (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.