Mark Takano

In the 2024 House race for CA-39, Mark Takano (D) defeated David Serpa (R) 56.7% to 43.3%. Mark Takano received 130,191 votes compared to 99,469 for David Serpa, a comfortable 13.4-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Mark Takano benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for CA-39, Mark Takano (D) defeated Aja Smith (R) 57.7% to 42.3%. Mark Takano received 75,896 votes compared to 55,701 for Aja Smith, a comfortable 15.3-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

This race flipped the seat from Republican to Democrat. Young Kim (R) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Democrat, Mark Takano won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office).

In the 2018 House race for CA-41, Mark Takano (D) defeated Aja Smith (R) 65.1% to 34.9%. Mark Takano received 216,454 votes compared to 116,042 for Aja Smith, a dominant 30.2-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Mark Takano benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Mark Takano benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2016 House race for CA-41, Mark Takano (D) defeated Doug Shepherd (R) 65.0% to 35.0%. Mark Takano received 128,164 votes compared to 69,159 for Doug Shepherd, a dominant 29.9-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Mark Takano benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for CA-41, Mark Takano (D) defeated Steve Adams (R) 56.6% to 43.4%. Mark Takano received 46,948 votes compared to 35,936 for Steve Adams, a comfortable 13.3-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Mark Takano benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Mark Takano won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Obama was in office).

In the 2012 House race for CA-41, Mark Takano (D) defeated John Tavaglione (R) 59.0% to 41.0%. Mark Takano received 103,578 votes compared to 72,074 for John Tavaglione, a comfortable 17.9-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.