Juan Vargas

In the 2024 House race for CA-52, Juan Vargas (D) defeated Justin Lee (R) 66.3% to 33.7%. Juan Vargas received 172,217 votes compared to 87,501 for Justin Lee, a dominant 32.6-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Juan Vargas benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Democrat column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2022 House race for CA-52, Juan Vargas (D) defeated Tyler Geffeney (D) 66.7% to 33.3%. Juan Vargas received 100,686 votes compared to 50,330 for Tyler Geffeney, a dominant 33.3-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Scott Peters (D) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Democrat, Juan Vargas won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office). The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Democrat column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2018 House race for CA-51, Juan Vargas (D) defeated Juan M. Hidalgo Jr. (R) 71.2% to 28.8%. Juan Vargas received 219,054 votes compared to 88,602 for Juan M. Hidalgo Jr., a dominant 42.4-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Juan Vargas benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Juan Vargas benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2016 House race for CA-51, Juan Vargas (D) defeated Juan M. Hidalgo, Jr. (R) 72.8% to 27.3%. Juan Vargas received 145,162 votes compared to 54,362 for Juan M. Hidalgo, Jr., a dominant 45.5-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Juan Vargas benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for CA-51, Juan Vargas (D) defeated Stephen Meade (R) 68.8% to 31.2%. Juan Vargas received 56,373 votes compared to 25,577 for Stephen Meade, a dominant 37.6-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Juan Vargas benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Juan Vargas won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Obama was in office).

In the 2012 House race for CA-51, Juan Vargas (D) defeated Michael Crimmins (R) 71.5% to 28.5%. Juan Vargas received 113,934 votes compared to 45,464 for Michael Crimmins, a dominant 43.0-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.