Jefferson Van Drew

In the 2024 House race for NJ-2, Jeff Van Drew (R) won with 58.1% of the vote, defeating Joseph F. Salerno (D) who received 41.2%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Jeff Van Drew's 16.9-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Jeff Van Drew benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for NJ-2, Jeff Van Drew (R) won with 58.9% of the vote, defeating Tim Alexander (D) who received 40.0%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Jeff Van Drew's 18.9-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Jeff Van Drew benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Jeff Van Drew benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2020 House race for NJ-2, Jeff Van Drew (R) won with 51.9% of the vote, defeating Amy Kennedy (D) who received 46.2%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Jeff Van Drew's 5.8-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.