Gabe Vasquez

In the 2024 House race for NM-2, Gabriel Vasquez (D) defeated Yvette Herrell (R) 52.1% to 47.9%. Gabriel Vasquez received 138,177 votes compared to 127,145 for Yvette Herrell, a narrow 4.2-point margin that would have flipped with a small shift in turnout or persuasion.

As the incumbent, Gabriel Vasquez benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2022 House race for NM-2, Gabriel Vasquez (D) won with 50.3% of the vote, defeating Yvette Herrell (R) who received 49.6%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. The 0.7-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

Gabriel Vasquez defeated the incumbent Yvette Herrell (R), which is a significant political event — most incumbents win re-election by wide margins. This was a general election upset. As a Democrat, Gabriel Vasquez won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office). Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.