Peter Welch

In the 2022 Senate race for VT Senate seat, Peter Welch (D) won with 68.5% of the vote, defeating Gerald Malloy (R) who received 28.0%. 9 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Peter Welch's 40.4-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This race flipped the seat from Independent to Democrat. Bernie Sanders (I) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Democrat, Peter Welch won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office). The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Democrat column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2018 House race for VT-00, Peter Welch (D) won with 69.2% of the vote, defeating Anya Tynio (R) who received 25.9%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Peter Welch's 43.3-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Peter Welch benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Peter Welch benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2016 House race for VT-00, Peter Welch (D) won with 82.5% of the vote, defeating Erica Clawson (l) who received 9.2%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Peter Welch's 73.3-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Peter Welch benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for VT-00, Peter Welch (D) won with 64.4% of the vote, defeating Mark Donka (R) who received 31.0%. 4 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Peter Welch's 33.4-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Peter Welch benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Peter Welch won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Obama was in office).

In the 2012 House race for VT-00, Peter Welch (D) won with 72.0% of the vote, defeating Mark Donka (R) who received 23.3%. 3 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Peter Welch's 48.7-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.